Bowl and Season Wrap-up

Mike Slive reviews the SEC Bowl Results --
this won't end well for Les Miles and Will Muschamp

I warned you…I am HORRIBLE at picking bowls.  However, thanks to the aforementioned rules, I finished above .500 for the first time (11-7).   So, I’ll be sticking to my rules going forward.  Things would have been so much better if a couple of SEC teams (Florida and LSU) had played up to par in their bowls.  I can’t imagine those performances are going to go over well at the next SEC Meeting.

But now, it’s time to wrap things up for what I think everyone can agree was an enjoyable college football season.  So, in the spirit of Carol Burnett:

“I’M SO GLAD WE HAD THIS TIME TOGETHER….”

Things That Didn’t Shock Me This Year

-       Michigan taking a step back from their 2011 success.

-       Dennard Robinson NOT winning the Heisman

-       No one knocking the SEC off the top of the BCS mountain 

-       Clemson winning 10+ games

-       Total meltdown at Arkansas under John L. Smith

-       KIffy-kins overseeing a meltdown at SoCal

-       Mike Leach stinking up the joint at Washington State

-       Conference realignment continuing

-       Jadeveon Clowney having a monster year

“JUST TO HAVE A LAUGH AND SING A SONG….”

Things That Surprised Me This Year

-       Penn State winning more than losing 

-       Tom O’Brien out at NC State 

-       Texas A&M 

-       South Carolina winning 11 for the second year in a row

-       Vanderbilt winning 9 games

-       Marcus Lattimore’s gut-wrenching knee injury

-       Sammy Watkins sub-par year

-       Notre Dame making the BCS Title Game

“SEEMS WE JUST GET STARTED AND BEFORE YOU KNOW IT….”

Looking Ahead To 2013

-       Nope….I’m not going to do it.  There are WAY too many things can happen between now and August that can drastically change things.  I’m sure the first “College Football Preview” magazines will be hitting the shelves shortly after Easter.  Total waste of money, but they’ll sell a ton of ‘em.

One Thing I’ll Be Keeping My Eye On In The Off-Season

-       How much money the ACC gets out of the soon-departing Maryland Terrapins.  They want $50 million, but I’ll be you a pound to a pinch of snuff it’s well short of that.  If it is $25 million or less, I expect the conference realignment game will kick into high gear.

One Thing I Won’t Be Keeping My Eye On In The Off-Season

-       Recruiting.  What an absolute joke and incredible example of exploitation this has become.  What a kid does in high school and how many “stars” some website (that will gladly take your money) gives him doesn’t mean squat.  It’s what they do when they get in school that counts – and some of them won’t even make it that far.  Team rankings are based on those silly “star” ratings too.  I ignore those as well.

“COMES THE TIME WE HAVE TO SAY ‘SO LONG!’”

 I’ll post a few things every now and then.  But for the most part, I’ll shut things down until August.

Goodnight everybody!

Bowl Picks (for real this time)

There are so many unknowns as we head into the bowl season.  You can’t really pay too much attention to the way bowl teams finished the regular season since most of them will have had at least a month-long break since their final games.  A lot of rust can appear in that amount of time.

I’m of the opinion that except for the contests that have some bearing on the National Championship (only one game this year) bowls are little more than a televised spring game against another school played in front of a half empty stadium in an exotic location far away from your fan base (granted, Shreveport and other bowl locations are not particularly “exotic”, but just use your imagination). 

It’s also important to note that the bowls as we know them are about to undergo a significant – and long overdue – change.  In 2014, we begin the limited playoff format which I certainly hope is going to spell the end for some of the bowls.  Harsh?  Perhaps, but consider the following:

·         Ticket sales to bowls have plummeted.  With the arrival of 50” TVs and HD pictures, you can get an amazing view at home for a fraction of the cost of traveling to the game.

·         Tickets that are sold are heavily discounted thanks to off-market options like StubHub.

·         It should come as no surprise then that just about every bowl loses money.

·         As a result of that, most teams lose money traveling to bowls.  While they may get some of it back from conference payouts, that doesn’t happen for many months meaning depleted athletic department coffers have to carry that debt for a while (and conference payouts aren’t what they used to be except in the SEC).

·         Corporations aren’t seeing the promised returns for their sponsorship investments. 

·         No one in the larger sports world really cares about bowl games except for the major ones played between December 31 and January 7.  Just check the TV ratings if you don’t believe me.

·         Finally – and most importantly – all projections are that the NCAA will make more money from a four team playoff than the current format.  Just imagine what happens if you expand that playoff to 8 or 16 teams.

Put it together and what you got?  The inevitable end for many of the so-called post-season “classics.”  It’s about stinking time.

Stop this charade!

One final disclaimer before we get to my picks.  In the past I have been uncompromisingly awful at picking bowl games.  Inconsistencies in how I made my selections have haunted me; therefore, I tightened up my logic this year in hopes of seeing better results. For your edification and encouragement, I now humbly present the rules I’ve employed for picking this year’s bowl winners:

1.    When in doubt, go with the SEC team.

2.    Never pick an ACC team over an SEC team

3.    Never pick a Big 10 team over a team that has any measure of speed on defense.  The Big Ten lives in an antediluvian fantasy world where they hold fast to their belief that history and tradition will trump any fancy schemes being deployed by other “lesser” programs.  Who needs speed when you can run the ball into the line three times and punt? The ghosts of Schembechler and Hayes will prevail!  Uh…yeah.

4.    ACC teams should be picked to win their bowls only when they are facing squads from much smaller conferences.  And this should be done with GREAT caution.

5.    Always take a Big 10 team over an ACC team, unless the ACC team has speed on defense (which is none currently).

6.    Always take a Big 12 team over an ACC team.

7.    Teams that run the option are doomed in bowl games because a) the option is a timing-based offense that will be out of synch for the first quarter or so due to the long layoff and b) opponents have plenty of time to figure out how to stop it.

8.    Teams that haven’t been to a bowl game in a long time usually lay an egg because they get too caught up in the hoopla.

There’s also the unknown impact of coaching changes, particularly on “mid-major” teams like Cincinnati, Northern Illinois, etc.  I’ve seen this work both ways – either the team comes out fired up to prove a point to the outgoing guy or they are totally demoralized and just go through the motions and get hammered.  So, there’s no rule to go by on that one. 

End preamble.  Begin picks.  Enjoy…

Thursday, December 27

• Belk Bowl - Cincinnati over Duke - Rule #8.  Yes, I realize that the Bearcats lost head coach Butch Jones to Tennessee, but there’s no reason for them to lose to a Duke program that hasn’t been to a bowl since 1995.

Friday, December 28

• Russell Athletic Bowl - Rutgers over Virginia Tech - Rule #5.  Even though Rutgers is not yet in the Big 10, they will be soon.  Plus Hokie High is a bunch of frauds.

Saturday, December 29

• New Era Pinstripe Bowl - West Virginia over Syracuse - Rule #6.   Yes, Syracuse is not in the ACC yet, but they will be next year.
• Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl - TCU over Michigan State - Rule #3.  Gary Patterson just keeps turning out impressive teams and the Spartans really haven’t done much to impress me.

Monday, December 31

• Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl - Vanderbilt over NC State - Rule #2. James Franklin, who MIGHT have been the new coach of the Wolfpack, shows the folks from West Raleigh what MIGHT have been.
• Hyundai Sun Bowl - USC over Georgia Tech - Rule #7. Even Kiffykins should be able to figure out the Tech option given a month of film study.
• Chick-fil-A Bowl - LSU over Clemson - Rule #2.  The Orange-colored Tigers end the season where it started, playing a Tiger team from the SEC in Atlanta.  This is a much bigger and better Tiger team than the one they faced in September.

Tuesday, January 1

• Heart of Dallas Bowl - Oklahoma State over Purdue - Rule #3. Purdue made a bowl?  Seriously?   Not really sure how that happened, but inquiries are being made.
• TaxSlayer.com Gator Bowl - Mississippi State over Northwestern - Rule #3.  This could be a decent game and may be one of the Big 10’s best chances to beat Rule #3.
• Capital One Bowl - Georgia over Nebraska - Rule #3.  Nebraska would love to end the season in a positive way after that U-G-L-Y beatdown in the Big 10 title game.  Won’t happen here.
• Outback Bowl - South Carolina over Michigan - Rule #3.  As you know, this match-up tore at my loyalties.  I went with head over heart because the Wolverines, like all Big 10 teams, don’t match up well against elite defenses. As we know, the Gamecocks have one of those.
• Rose Bowl Game - Stanford over Wisconsin - Rule #3.  Wisconsin has lost 57 consecutive Rose Bowls…or something like that.  I can’t imagine they will be too up for this one now that Brett Bielema is living in Arkansas. 
• Discover Orange Bowl - Florida State over Northern Illinois - Rule #4.  Oh sure, lots of folks would LOVE to see Northern Illinois win this one.  David vs. Goliath (even if the Goliath in this case is a less-than-impressive Seminole team).  Even if they hadn’t lost their head coach to NC State, however, they wouldn’t have had a shot in this one.  Rule #8 sort of applies here too since it’s Northern Illinois in the Orange Bowl.

Wednesday, January 2

• Allstate Sugar Bowl - Florida over Louisville - Rule #1.  I know the Cards have got to be stoked that Charlie Strong has decided to stick around for a bit longer.  That’s probably not enough to overcome the talent gulf between the two teams.

Thursday, January 3

• Tostitos Fiesta Bowl - Oregon over Kansas State - I’m going to apply Rule #3 here.  Even though Kansas State isn’t in the Big 10, Wildcat coach Bill Snyder acts like he is.

Friday, January 4

• AT&T Cotton Bowl - Texas A&M over Oklahoma - Rule #1.  I’m a bit hesitant on this one since Johnny Manziel could easily suffer from the dreaded “Heisman hangover” bowl curse.  But with “Big Game Bob” on the other sideline, you can always count on a Sooner loss in a bowl game.

Saturday, January 5

• BBVA Compass Bowl - Ole Miss over Pittsburgh - Rule #2.   The Panthers, another soon-to-be ACC team will show that they are ready to be full-fledged members of America’s premier football conference by losing their bowl game.

Monday, January 7

• BCS National Championship - Alabama over Notre Dame - Rule #1 and Rule #3.  OK, Notre Dame isn’t in the Big 10 – but they have that Big 10 mindset.   I can just see QB Golson being man-handled by the Tide defense – much in the same way that they roughed up Dennard Robinson in the opener.  Remember how that turned out?  Plus Nick Saban has had a month to study film of the Irish and I’m sure he’s come up with a game plan that will deliver another title to Tuscaloosa.

Bowl Pics!

Everyone LOVES Bowls!!!

Stay tuned -- my college football bowl predictions will be coming soon



Championship Week Picks!!!

Well folks, we’re coming down to the wire as conferences hold their annual championship games.  As mentioned earlier, plenty of seats are available in Charlotte between the battle of the titans of Florida State and Georgia Tech.

What’s intriguing about these championship games is not just that they will sort out the bowl bids and who plays for the BCS title, but also the subtext of conference realignment that refuses to die.  My hunch is that this topic won’t end until we have four or five super-conferences of 16 teams each. 

"Rivalry Week" Bit Me Again!

Last week saw the typical result for me and “Rivalry Week” as I missed 11 out of the 29 games picked.  Ouch!  Charlie bit me!!!!  For the season, I now stand at just a hair under 77% correct.

Here are this week’s picks:

Thursday        

• Rutgers over Louisville (Big East Championship) – you have to think the Big East office isn’t too happy about the fact that their conference championship game features two teams that are leaving the conference.

Friday

• Kent State over Northern Illinois (MAC Championship) – Kent State could be playing for an Orange Bowl bid.  Seriously.
• Stanford over UCLA (PAC-12 Championship) – I picked the Bruins over the Cardinal last week and look how that turned out.  

Saturday

• Oklahoma State over Baylor – Cowboys will pull out a win to enhance their bowl position.
• Oklahoma over TCU – Same for the Sooners
• Tulsa over UCF (Conference USA Championship) - Meh
• Cincinnati over UConn – I know UConn beat Rutgers last week.  But Cincy won’t overlook them.
• Pittsburgh over South Florida – And that just might do it for Skip Holtz in Tampa.
• Kansas State over Texas – No conference championship game for the Big 12 since they only have 10 teams.   This will have to do.
• West Virginia over Kansas – Oh boy, this could be ugly.
• Oregon State over Nicholls – This one too.
• Arkansas State over Middle Tennessee State – Gus Malzhan has done a nice job at Arkansas State and will soon move on to something bigger.
• Boise State over Nevada – Boise is not quite what they used to be, but they’ll win here.
• LA Lafayette over Florida Atlantic – Because the Cajuns have a nice recipe for Owl.
• Alabama over Georgia (SEC Championship) – This could be very close.
• Texas State over New Mexico State – I don’t know anything about either team.  So there.
• Florida State over Georgia Tech (ACC Championship) – Lots of fans dressed as empty seats in Charlotte.
• Nebraska over Wisconsin (Big 10 Championship) – Wisconsin has a habit of keeping things close.
• Hawaii over South Alabama – Norm Chow closes out a disappointing first season in Hawaii on an encouraging note.
• Tottenham Hotspur over Fulham – With their midweek win over Liverpool, Spurs are now comfortably back in 5^th place.  A win at Craven Cottage is a must to keep pace.

Once again...

This ALWAYS happens to my Rivalry Week picks!

Week 13 – Rivalry Week Picks

Well folks, we come to it.   Time to settle grudges, air grievances, get everything out on the table.  Yes, it’s time for Thanksgiving.

Oh, and there are some intriguing football match-ups this week too as “Rivalry Week” is upon us.   Sadly, this year will not include the traditional Texas vs. Texas A&M game, as those two have decided to go their separate ways.  Actually, it was the Longhorns who got all pissy about things when the Aggies decided they could make more money in the SEC.

Speaking of conference expansion (the subject that just won’t go away) – don’t be too shocked if the following scenario plays out in the next couple of months:  Clemson and Florida State to the Big 12, North Carolina and Virginia to the SEC.

I missed five games last week – the same number of red zone turnovers by the Skyhawks as they failed to win the state title.  Oh well, six in a row is nothing to sneeze at.  For the year, I’m just a smidge above 78% correct.

Tuesday, November 20

• Toledo over Akron -  Terry Bowden’s first year as coach of the Zips comes to a merciful conclusion.

Thursday, November 22

• Texas over TCU – Again, shame on the Longhorns for dropping their game against the Aggies.

Friday, November 23

• Nebraska over Iowa – There are folks in Iowa City who would love to fire Kirk Ferentz…but he has a $20 million buyout.  Hope he sends his agent a nice Christmas gift.
• Kent State over Ohio – This could be a very enjoyable game to watch.  Both teams are very good.
• LSU over Arkansas – Arkansas always gives LSU fits and I expect this to be the case again this year.
• Washington over Washington State – Steve Sarkasian takes Mike Leach to the woodshed.
• Arizona over Arizona State – Pretty interesting match-up in the desert.  Rich Rod seems to have settled in nicely for the Wildcats.
• Syracuse over Temple – Syracuse bids farewell to the rapidly meaningless Big East.
• East Carolina over Marshall – A win here should solidify a nice bowl for the Pirates and take pressure off Ruffin McNeill in Greenville North. 

Saturday, November 24

• Duke over Miami – Miami players have to feel like the rug was pulled out from under them – again.
• North Carolina over Maryland – Maryland begins their “ACC Farewell Tour” in Chapel Hill. Hope the Big Ten schools enjoy the LSD-inspired uniforms.
• NC State over Boston College – If Tom O’Brien loses this one, he shouldn’t be allowed back in the locker room in Raleigh.
• Vanderbilt over Wake Forest – James Franklin has done an AMAZING job in Nashville.  Who thinks he will still be there next August?
• Rutgers over Pittsburgh – Two teams leaving the Big East for greener pastures elsewhere.
• Virginia over Virginia Tech – Wahoos would LOVE to prevent Hokie High from going bowling.   The ACC office knows that a Wahoo win will cost the conference big $$$.
• Ohio State over Michigan – Injuries will cost the Wolverines in Columbus.
• Georgia over Georgia Tech – Could be entertaining for a half.
• Indiana over Purdue – Purdue will be looking for a new coach as soon as this one is over.
• Tennessee over Kentucky – This one is going to be like watching two old women fighting.  
• Texas Tech over Baylor – Baylor still delirious after beating K-State….the hangover will be costly.
• Oregon State over Oregon – VERY intriguing match-up.  Beavers have been playing in the Ducks’ shadow all season, but they are quite good.  Ducks are wounded after seeing their title hopes dashed.  
• UCLA over Stanford  - Bruins looked really good last week and Stanford will still have the hangover from Oregon.
• Florida over Florida State – Defense of the Gators will prevail in this one.
• Oklahoma over Oklahoma State – Very close game…will be decided late.
• Alabama over Auburn – Not a close game at all.
• Clemson over South Carolina – A gimpy Shaw and an inconsistent offensive line will keep the Gamecocks from keeping up with the high-scoring Tigers.  The opportunities will be there since the Tigers have gone with the “defense is for suckers” strategy.  The Gamecocks just won’t be able to take full advantage.
• Ole Miss over Mississippi State – Egg Bowl should be quite the scramble this year.
• Texas A&M over Missouri – Johnny Football carves up the Tigers.
• Notre Dame over Southern Cal – The Irish have taken advantage of every break they’ve gotten this year.  And now Matt Barkley is out for the Trojans.

Week 12 – IT’S CUPCAKE TIME AGAIN!!!

Just in time for Thanksgiving, the cupcakes are out again!  Several teams in the SEC, their conference schedules having been (for the most part) completed, will be feasting on small, easily digestible treats that are sure to delight their fans and pad all sorts of statistics.

Mmmmmm.....cupcakes!

Lest we get too carried away, however, some of these matchups could be a wee bit more difficult than they appear at first glance, especially in situations when major conference teams are facing FCS squads that run the option (yes, I’m talking to you, South Carolina and Georgia). 

Last week was certainly like A Tale of Two Cities – the best of times and the worst of times.  I did pick the big upset in Tuscaloosa (file that under “blind squirrel finds nut”), but missed on nine other match-ups, lowering the season percentage to 78%.  It all feels like I’m being served a Kobe steak, but am forced to eat it at the children’s table.

Here are this week’s picks.  Remember -- use them only for good, never for evil.

Thursday, November 15

• North Carolina over Virginia – Yes, Virginia, there is hope for your football program.  And it’s tempting to think that your recent win streak will continue against a Tar Heel squad that gave up 68 points last Saturday to Georgia Tech.  But this is not a good match-up for the home team.  Despite UNC’s baffling inability to play well in Charlottesville, I think the ‘Hoos in ‘Hooville will leave Scott Stadium disappointed, comforted only by the thoughts of the upcoming roast beast.

Friday, November 16

• Air Force over Hawaii – Remember how football talking heads used to say “Give Norm Chow a chance to be a head coach and he’ll be fantastic!”  Ummm….maybe not. 

Saturday, November 17

Thanks Dennard!

• Michigan over Iowa – This will be the final game in “The Big House” for Dennard Robinson (the Wolverines close out the regular season in Columbus next weekend).  I really hope he has recovered from the elbow injury that’s sidelined him for the past two weeks and gets to play one more time for the folks he’s thrilled so many times.
• Clemson over NC State – This one has the makings of being a very lopsided affair in Death Valley.
• Georgia Tech over Duke – I know everyone wants Duke to make the ACC Championship game and if they win in Atlanta on Saturday, they just might do it.  But Tech runs that nutty option which will slice right through the porous Duke defense. Interestingly, the new Tech QB, Vlad Lee, is from Durham and he was not actively recruited by Duke when he was in high school. 
• Florida State over Maryland – While Florida State is begging to be beaten again, I don’t see Maryland having enough juice to do it. The Seminoles will punch their ticket to the ACC Championship to face Georgia Tech, Duke, or Miami.  Not exactly must-see TV. 
• Virginia Tech over Boston College – Despite my misgivings, I’m picking the fraudulent Hokies to win because Boston College is just really bad.
• Miami over South Florida – Which event will draw a bigger crowd in Miami this weekend – the Miami Book Fair or this dog of a match-up?  Don’t know about you, but I’ll go with the books.
• Penn State over Indiana – Kevin Wilson is starting to see signs of progress in Bloomington, but the Hoosiers still have a ways to go.
• Alabama over Western Carolina – I feel very sorry for the Catamounts because hell hath no fury like Nick Saban after a loss.
• Mississippi State over Arkansas – I know Razorback nation is waiting for this nightmare season to end.  Don’t worry, little piggies, it’ll be over soon.
• Florida over Jacksonville State – The Gators will feast on the other Gamecocks as they tune up for Florida State.
• South Carolina over Wofford – Oh boy….better be careful!  The Terriers run the option and have made it uncomfortably close the last two times they played in Columbia.  Spurrier would tie Rex Enright for more wins in school history if the Gamecocks get the job done.
• Georgia over Georgia Southern – Be careful (take 2)!  The Eagles are a good tune-up for the Bulldogs before taking on Georgia Tech next weekend, but Mark Richt’s guys better not look past the Eagles!
• Tottenham Hotspur over Arsenal – The first North London Derby of the BPL season takes place at Emirates Stadium.  Spurs need to turn things around if they want to finish in the top 4, and a win over the Goons would be just what the doctor ordered.
• Citadel over Furman – Year two of the Bruce Fowler experiment in Greenville comes to a merciful end. The doubts I had when they hired him are growing stronger by the day.
• Auburn over Alabama A&M – I was tempted to go with the Bulldogs, but I just couldn’t bring myself to do it.  Auburn is not THAT bad, are they?
• Oregon over Stanford – If this game was being played in Palo Alto, I would have picked the Cardinal.  However, Oregon is too close to “the promised land” to blow a game like this on their home field.
• UCLA over USC – This will likely be a chippy game with lots of penalties and maybe a full-on brawl or two.  The Bruins would do the college football world a huge favor by winning and hastening the end to the Lane Kiffin era.
• LSU over Ole Miss – This is a great under-the-radar rivalry, and this year’s match-up could be closer than you might expect. 
• Missouri over Syracuse – Both teams are coming off nice wins, but Syracuse seems to struggle away from the Dome.
• Notre Dame over Wake Forest – I would love to see the Deacons pull out the win and silence all the “Notre Dame is getting no respect!” arguments, but I just don’t see it happening in South Bend.
• East Carolina over Tulane – The Pirates will enjoy their trip to the Big Easy.  Hey, who doesn’t?
• Vanderbilt over Tennessee – A Commodore win would remove any lingering doubt on the fate of Derek Dooley in Knoxvegas.
• Samford over Kentucky – This really won’t be an upset.  Kentucky is the cupcake in this one.
• Hammond over Augusta Christian – The SCISA Championship.  When in doubt, go with the coach who had the stones to say “I can throw the fade.”  Skyhawks make it seven in a row.